The SNP administration has previously made two manifesto commitments to deliver 1,000 extra officers on 2007 levels, thereby preventing the number falling below 17,234.
The Herald can reveal that as of September 30, there were just 16,427 full-time equivalent (FTE) in Scotland – the lowest third quarter level for 17 years when the commitment was made. It is over 800 fewer than past commitment levels.
It has emerged that since 2011, the policing numbers have only fallen below the ‘minimum levels’ since 2021 when policing numbers were at 17,232. Since then police numbers have dipped to 16,570 in 2022 and 16,613 in 2023.
The SNP has previously hailed the 1,000 extra officers pledge as one of the key factors behind a fall in recorded crime – although in recent years has been less vocal about any minimum policy level commitment.
In the party’s ‘Is Scotland safer under the SNP?’ briefing from 2021 – which remains live – they say that between 2006/07 and 2019/20 – recorded crime has fallen by 41% and is at “one of the lowest levels seen since 1974”.
They pointed to the 1000 more police officers being in place in 2007 “while the Tories presided over a cut of 20,000”.
Similar messages have been put out by the Scottish Government in past years to underline how Scotland’s streets were getting safer.
But in the year ending June 2024, the police recorded 300,070 crimes. This was 3% (or 7,368 crimes) higher than the 292,702 crimes recorded in the previous year and nearly 11% (29,673 crimes) higher than ten years ago.
The Scottish Police Federation, which represents rank-and-file officers, says the drop in police numbers comes as the Scotland’s population has risen to 5.5m, the highest on record.
(Image: PA/Andrew Milligan)
They said that when there are incidents of civil disorder such as ahead of the Rangers v Celtic League Cup final in Glasgow, police resources are “stretched to breaking point”.
READ MORE:
In the disturbance, several officers were injured one of these was an eye injury from a broken bottle. Police also confirmed a 26-year-old man suffered serious injuries and was taken to hospital for treatment.
The scenes saw the Celtic and Rangers diehard fan groups, the Green Brigade and the Union Bears clashing on the city’s Argyle Street while officers worked to control the rampant crowds running amok across the city, using batons on the swarms of ultras.
WARNING: STRONG LANGUAGE
Celtic fans attacking Rangers fans before the Cup Final… 🏴👊 pic.twitter.com/VqXfVjgRn9
— Football Fights (@footbalIfights) December 15, 2024
Superintendents invoked a ‘Section 60’ order that allowed police to stop and search Rangers and Celtic hooligans. The measure remained in effect for several hours after the finish of the game.
In the immediate aftermath of the match – which saw Celtic win on penalties after a 3-3 draw against Rangers – just two people were apprehended. A 41-year-old man was arrested and charged in connection with a drugs offence and a 30-year-old man was arrested in connection with being in possession of a pyrotechnic.
First Minister John Swinney said the level of violence was “completely and utterly unacceptable”.
First Minister John Swinney said the violence was unacceptable (Image: PA)
The SPF says cuts mean that the amount of time that the police can spend preparing for known-risks to public safety has been reduced.
The federation said that in advance of the Old Firm match, there should have been more time spent compiling intelligence of where people were likely to gather and where there would be a risk of disorder.
They said the level of intelligence gathering that is required generally is “virtually impossible” currently as police officers are “spread too thinly”.
They said that the policing of major demonstrations is also a “huge drain” on resources.
David Kennedy, general secretary of the SPF said: “There are serious concerns about public safety due to the low staffing levels and this particularly affects certain areas of operation – we need more police officers on the roads at night for example. Police officers step in when other support services are over-stretched, such as mental health services.
“Instead of spending money on consultants and training for senior management, Police Scotland should offer fair pay to officers on the beat. We are expected to implement and enforce new and increasingly complex legislation, to police more public events and we are subject to scrutiny whether on or off duty. Our pay has been eroded by continued high inflation and spiking energy prices. We are providing more and more services for less and less pay.”
New laws introduced which the police are expected to enforce, notably the Hate Crime Bill and what the federation called the “changing emphasis on welfare and wellbeing” has what it said was “massive implications” in terms of the time involved in questioning a suspect.
Previously a suspect could be questioned on the street, now the federation says it must be in a police station.
“The manner of dealing with suspects has changed beyond all recognition – involving considerably more time. No-one is against this change but it takes far more time. Police officers are routinely called out to mental health incidents which they were not in the past,” a source said.
(Image: PA)
It comes as it emerged there has been a 49% surge in police officer resignations to pursue other careers over four years. In 2023, 257 officers left Police Scotland to take up a new job, education or for personal reasons according to official data. However, in 2019 there were just 173.
The number of officers leaving the police force to pursue a new career increased by 79% in the same timeframe, from 69 in 2019 to 124 in 2023.
Read more from Martin Williams:
Hopes of UKGov intervention to save GSA’s Mack is dashed
Economist group indicates FM’s homeless crisis action not enough
Police Scotland’s Chief Constable Jo Farrell expects officer numbers to increase to 16,600 in the coming financial year – although that remains over 600 below the past ‘minimum level’.
Recent research from the Scottish Institute for Policing Research found almost half of officers said they would not have chosen policing as a career if they had known how demanding it would be.
The Scottish Government previously said that it has ensured record police funding of £1.62bn during 2025-26, an increase of £70m on 2024-25.
It said that that means Police Scotland will take on more recruits this year than at any time since 2013 and the chief constable stated that she expected numbers to reach 16,600.
It said that Scotland continues to have more officers per capita than England and Wales and this “continues to be a safe place to live”.
A Police Scotland spokesman said: “The Chief Constable has been clear that strengthening and protecting frontline policing is a priority for Police Scotland and we’ve outlined plans to recruit over 1,300 officers this year.
“On 4 November, our officer numbers were 16,603.
“The Scottish Government’s budget proposal for the next financial year enables policing to maintain a maximum officer establishment of 16,600 as we develop a sustainable and effective operating model and modernised workforce which prioritises our frontline and delivers for the people of Scotland.”
The concerns surfaced as the SPF said they were at the “end of their tether” and needed a “proper pay deal for Christmas”, in the wake of a protest over pay which remains unresolved.
The SPF has said the Scottish Government’s offer of a 4.75% pay rise was not good enough and it was seeking a 5.5% increase in line with that offered to NHS workers in Scotland.
It is expected that the pay talks, which have collapsed will go to arbitration.
Police officers are prohibited by law from going on strike but can choose to withdraw goodwill, or work to rule, as a means of expressing dissatisfaction.
The SPF announced at the end of October that officers would be withdrawing their goodwill until further notice while the Association of Scottish Police Superintendents (ASPS) in November advised members to adhere to their “core duty hours” as the dispute escalated.
(Image: Supplied)
The SPF estimated the goodwill of officers is worth £6m a year to the police service.
In response to the concerns of the SPF, a Scottish Government spokesman said: “In 2023 Police Scotland and the Scottish Police Authority set out that a figure of 16,500–16,600 police officers would offer a sustainable and effective operating model to keep communities safe.
“Despite the previous UK Government’s financial settlement to the Scottish Government, we have invested record police funding of £1.55 billion this year – an increase of £92.7 million. The Chief Constable has confirmed that this allocation will allow Police Scotland to maintain police officer numbers at this level and have stated there were 16,603 police officers as at 4 November.
“Scotland continues to have more police officers per capita than England and Wales and is a safe place to live, with recorded crime at one of the lowest levels since 1974 and down 40% since 2006-07.
“Recruitment and deployment operational matters [are] for the Chief Constable, who has the flexibility to develop her workforce to best keep our communities safe.”