Murdo Fraser, the Scottish Conservative’s economy spokesperson, pointed to polling in recent weeks which has shown Nigel Farage’s party are likely to emerge with at least 10 MSPs from the Holyrood elections in around 16 months.
A Norstat poll in early December suggested the SNP would be on 59 seats, Scottish Labour on 20, the Conservatives 19, Reform 13, the LibDems 11, and the Greens on seven – while a Find Out Now poll run later that month put the SNP on 54, Labour on 19, the Tories on 16, the Greens 15, the LibDems 12, Reform 10, and Alba 3.
Fraser suggested that the polling numbers should be a warning to voters “concerned about the future of the United Kingdom”.
READ MORE: Scots to elect large pro-independence majority in 2026 Holyrood vote, poll finds
“Current polling would suggest that Reform could well end up as the fourth largest party at Holyrood in 2026, potentially with a greater number of MSPs than either the Greens or Liberal Democrats,” he wrote in the Scotsman.
“What this does, of course, is simply split the pro-Union vote in Scotland to an even greater extent than at present.
“Although John Swinney seems to have made some progress in stabilising the decline in SNP support, Reform’s intervention is likely to mean that the SNP could still form the next administration at Holyrood with a much-reduced vote share on 2021, simply because the opposition on the pro-UK side is now split four ways.
“Voters who are concerned about the future of the United Kingdom need to bear that in mind when considering whether to give Reform their support.”
Polling experts have also noted that Farage’s party entering the Scottish parliament for the first time (other than the defection of former Tory MSP Michelle Ballantyne just months ahead of the 2021 elections) will fracture the Unionist vote.
Polling expert professor John Curtice previously told The National that “by taking votes primarily from Conservative, Labour and the Liberal Democrats, Reform’s advance threatens to further fragment the Unionist vote”.
“That could potentially make it easier for pro-independence parties to retain their Holyrood majority, and thereby keep alive the possibility of a second independence referendum,” he added.
In his Scotsman article, Fraser further said that the Conservatives could not afford to simply plead for voters to use their ballots tactically and not back Reform, but instead had to “set out our own policy agenda”.
Scottish Tory MSP and economy spokesperson Murdo FraserHe argued that the General Election had seen a “high level of tactical voting amongst pro-Union party supporters across Scotland, to the mutual benefit of all”.
“If we want to see that continue into the 2026 Holyrood election, we need to be conscious that shifting towards Reform’s policy agenda might well be counterproductive,” he added.
The Tory MSP claimed that voters who had turned to Labour in order to “see a change at Westminster” could be convinced to back the Conservatives “with Scottish Labour struggling due to the drag effect of Keir Starmer’s unpopularity”.
“That will not be done if our focus is leaning into the Reform agenda, with its simplistic, populist positions on issues such as immigration,” he said.
The Scottish Tories currently have 31 MSPs, equal to the record-high they achieved in the 2016 Holyrood elections. Polls have suggested that they could lose around half that number in the 2026 vote.