According to polling from the More in Common think tank, 42% of adults in the UK believe that Reform UK represent “the greatest threat to Labour’s chances of remaining in power beyond this Parliament”., while 31% say it is the Conservatives.
With the 27% who said “don’t know” removed, voters expect Reform to become Labour’s main challenger by 58% to 42%.
Elsewhere, the More in Common “end of year” poll for LBC found that more people expect Farage to become the next UK prime minister than any other politician.
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A total of 23% of voters said they think the Reform UK leader will enter No 10 after Keir Starmer, more than all the Labour figures combined. Angela Rayner was named by 9%, Rachel Reeves by 6%, and Wes Streeting by 4%.
A total of 13% of voters said they think it most likely that Tory leader Kemi Badenoch will be the next UK prime minister.
A Find Out Now poll for The National run before the new year found that Scots would vote for independence by 60% to 40% should Farage be running the UK Government.
The More in Common end of year poll of 2015 UK adults also had bad news for Labour when it came to “restoring trust in politics” – something Starmer pledged to do on the steps on Downing Street the day after winning the General Election.
The poll found that a plurality of people in the UK (46%) thought Labour had damaged their trust in politics, while 44% said they had made no difference. Just 10% of voters said Starmer’s Government had increased their trust.
Asked if their opinion of Labour had improved, worsened, or stayed the same since they took power, 56% said it had gotten worse, 37% said there had been no change, and just 7% said they now looked more favourably on the party.
There was a similar pattern when voters were asked if Labour were likely to deliver on their election pledges, with a plurality of 39% saying they were “very pessimistic” that it would happen. On the opposite end of the scale, just 6% said they were “very hopeful”.
In total, 54% expressed pessimism about Labour delivering on their promises, while 26% were hopeful.
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The news comes after separate polling for The National found that just one in 10 Scots (12%) believe that Labour will succeed in their pledge to cut energy bills.
Since July 2024, the UK energy price cap has increased by £170, or approximately 10.8%.
In July 2024, the cap was set at £1568 per year for a typical household paying by direct debit. It rose to £1717 in October 2024, an increase of £149 or about 9.5%. In January 2025, it further increased to £1738, adding £21 or roughly 1.2%.
More in Commons surveyed 2015 UK voters between December 20 and 23, 2024 for their end of year poll.