A non-ministerial government body tasked with providing independent economic forecasts, the commission on Tuesday published its report into the projected cost of the SNP’s stated aim of “mitigating the two-child limit” for people in Scotland.
It found that ending the cap would add £155m onto the Scottish benefits bill in 2026/27, rising to £198m in 2029/2030.
It further projected that around 50,000 children would be impacted by the mitigation payments by 2030.
The UK’s two-child benefit cap limits the social security payments a person can claim for third or subsequent children, unless they can meet certain conditions such as proving that the child is a product of rape.
It was brought in by the Tory government and firmly opposed by Labour. The now-Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner previously called it “obscene”.
However, since taking power, Keir Starmer’s Labour Government has refused to lift the cap, instead saying that economic growth must come before anything else.
The SNP Government in Scotland has pledged to work towards lifting the cap in 2026, saying that it needs data held by the UK Government to do so.
Finance Secretary Shona Robison told MSPs in December that they would “work as hard as possible in 2025 so we can start paying families as early as we can in 2026”.
More to follow …