Both the 2024 general election and the 2026 Holyrood elections are crucial for Sarwar – and the fight for Bute House has dominated his year.
So how did he get here? It is fair to say it has been a year of ups and downs.
The comeback was in full swing. Sarwar started the new year relatively popular, particularly when pitted against the then SNP leader Humza Yousaf.
Sarwar had capitalised on a momentous by-election win over the SNP in Rutherglen the previous year, arguing in showed the country was ready for change.
Change was the Scottish Labour leader’s soundbite of the year. It was also his UK party boss Keir Starmer’s key message on the lead up to the 2024 general election.
READ MORE:
Scottish Labour ‘risks being brought down by Starmer’, says insider
Labour hold onto power at Edinburgh Council after Cammy Day quits
UK Labour decision on Waspi women is nasty sting for Scottish party
The plan to stand out against the Tories and the SNP began early in 2024, with Sarwar appealing to independence supporters to back Labour in the upcoming general election.
And when UK Labour’s deputy leader Angela Rayner made her first visit north of the year in February, she promised change in the first 100 days of her party’s government.
In a direct appeal to SNP voters, she argued the road to change “ran through Scotland”, adding: “The distracted and tired SNP has run out of road and offers Scotland nothing other than more division and decline.”
She told Scottish voters their “voices will be heard”. Perhaps it is these kind of statements voters are now questioning.
The SNP countered these attacks by telling voters the Scottish Labour MPs they selected would follow the will of the party, and not the country.
On a near weekly basis, these arguments were played out at First Minister’s Questions (FMQs) between Labour and the SNP, with Sarwar quick to criticise the Scottish Government’s troubled NHS waiting lists and A&E targets.
An early chink in Scottish Labour’s armour came in the form of a windfall tax on the oil and gas industry, while no new oil and gas licences would be approved.
Labour proposed an extension to the windfall tax on oil and gas company profits, but bolstering the industry with a publicly owned GB Energy company in Scotland.
It’s worth noting the SNP favoured maintaining the tax at 75% while the Tories accused both parties of killing off the North Sea industry.
And when the general election came around, Labour failed to win over the North East, losing out to both the SNP and to the Tories.
March marked a year for Humza Yousaf as first minister. It was a key moment for Anas Sarwar to put his claws into a fragile SNP leader, who’s popularity was shrinking.
Sarwar scathingly described Yousaf as “weak, out of his depth and leading a chaotic and divided government”.
And a month later, Sarwar was given a boost in polling for the first time since the 2014 independence referendum.
2024 started well for Scottish Labour – but trouble was ahead. (Image: Jane Barlow) A YouGov survey of 1,100 Scots found 33% backed Labour at Westminster, compared to 31% for the SNP. It showed Labour support was increasing, but the SNP’s was declining.
Sarwar described it as a “huge moment” for his party.
A crucial moment followed weeks later. Yousaf had abruptly ended the Bute House Agreement, a power-sharing deal with the Scottish Greens. He resigned days later.
A general election had not been called yet, but Sarwar was ready to capitalise by firing ahead with a no confidence vote in the Scottish Government.
While the SNP administration held on, it was no doubt weakened further, especially with an election around the corner.
And with John Swinney stepping into to replace Yousaf, polling also put Labour ahead of the SNP at Holyrood.
Rishi Sunak stood in the pouring rain to call a general election days later, and of course Sarwar and Starmer were elated.
The campaign was fairly steady for Labour – but crucial pledges made here would come back to haunt Sarwar.
“Read my lips: no austerity under Labour,” he fumed at Swinney on national TV.
The financial stability of the future Labour government and its refusal to scrap the two-child benefit cap were the main obstacles for Sarwar and Starmer.
Sarwar said there would be ‘no austerity under Labour’ as he went head to head with Swinney (Image: Jane Barlow) But when results came around, it was a knock out for Labour. The SNP had shrunk from 39 seats to just nine, while Labour were up from one to 37.
Once in government, Chancellor Rachel Reeves admitted the scale of the country’s economy had been grossly underestimated during the Conservative tenure.
There was a £22 billion black hole and tough decisions would need to be made.
It was September and Labour had been in fresh in the doors of Downing Street. But the challenges had begun.
And as the year draws to a close, the obstacles in Sarwar’s way to Bute House are not going anywhere.
There was in anger in Scotland when the UK Government confirmed it would not scrap the controversial two child benefit cap.
But the anger that came from that was nothing compared to the outrage when Reeves confirmed the UK Government would means test the winter fuel payment to only those in receipt of benefits like Pension Credit.
Does Anas Sarwar need to reassess his relationship with Keir Starmer? (Image: Robert Perry) The payments of up to £300 would be cut from millions of pensioners to help fill the £22bn black hole.
Scottish Labour later said it would expand the winter fuel payment under a devolved benefit, with the payments tapered to benefit the poorest pensions.
But this obviously won’t happen until at least 2026, if Labour is elected to Holyrood. It’s likely to be little comfort to pensioners over the two winters that they will face before that.
The impact this had on Scottish Labour was obvious, despite calming words from Sarwar.
Polling showed they were now on the back foot at Holyrood, with just 21% of respondents prepared to vote Labour in the Scottish Parliament constituency vote.
That is lower than the 22% result at Holyrood – the party’s lowest rating in three years and Sarwar’s satisfaction rating had plummeted to minus 17, compared to Swinney minus six.
The SNP meanwhile increased support to 37% and if that polling is correct, it would be Swinney that would be first minister in 2026 – not Sarwar.
While Swinney looks to steady the ship for the SNP in a turbulent year, Sarwar is left hoping he doesn’t lose control of his.
And when the UK Government, led by Starmer, announced it would not compensate the 1950s women who had not been notified of state pension changes, Sarwar’s problems only grew.
There isn’t a bee in Sarwar’s bonnet – it’s a full on swarm on Waspi (Women Against State Pension Injustice) women who are not prepared to let him forget his earlier pledges on compensation.
When the Waspi announcement was made, Sarwar was quickly reminded of a 2017 tweet where he promised the campaigners would be remunerated under his leadership.
READ MORE:
Yousaf was unsure of SNP future last week – what changed?
No, not every man. But men who aren’t must vent fury at ones among you
Herald Poll: Is Keir Starmer damaging Scottish Labour?
He has since came out and said he believes the UK party made the wrong decision – but that won’t be enough to ease the pressure.
Party insiders also hinted at growing discontent, arguing Starmer’s governance was destroying Scottish Labour’s electoral hopes.
One insider recently described the problems in the party as being “haunted by the Branch Office label,” adding the party risks being brought down by UK Labour.
It is a criticism that has haunted Labour for years – how does Sarwar shape his own identity – and policies – away from the UK party, and is it even possible?
The position Scottish Labour now finds itself in could not have been predicted at the end of 2023.
At the start of this year, Anas Sarwar faced up to Humza Yousaf and Douglas Ross.
Both of those opposition leaders are now gone.
His challenge for 2025, is fending off an SNP on the mend and led by John Swinney.
He must also see off a Scottish Tory party, under Russell Findlay, who is arguing they are the fresh, ‘common sense’, approach voters are crying out for.
And of course, the lingering threat of Reform is one that could bite Scottish Labour if they’re not careful.
But perhaps Sarwar needs to start the new year by looking inward. Are all of his Scottish Labour MSPs behind him?
The disquiet over unpopular policies from Starmer and Reeves are starting to bite and as the campaign for 2026 nears, his backbench MSPs will be looking to the security of their jobs.
Sarwar might have to decide whether to shut up shop on the Scottish Labour branch office claims once and for all.
And to do that, Sarwar may need to decide whether he is going to stand up to his UK party.