A seat projection produced by Curtice, and based on a Survation poll published on Wednesday morning, put the SNP on 53 MSPs, 12 short of a majority in the 129-seat parliament.
The Scottish Greens were predicted to return 10 MSPs – putting pro-independence parties two short of a majority on 63 seats.
The Unionist side were projected to hold 65 seats, but cobbling together that majority could prove politically difficult. Labour would have 24 MSPs, the Tories and Reform UK would both have 15, and the LibDems 12, the poll predicted.
🚨🆕HOLYROOD 2026 VOTING INTENTION
Seat extrapolation from Professor Sir John Curtice (assuming uniform movement):
🟡SNP 53🔵Con 15🟣Ref. 15🔴Lab 24🟠LD. 12🟢Grn. 10@CalumAM | @geoffaberdein | @akmaciver pic.twitter.com/m9mopkOhec
— Holyrood Sources (@HolyroodSources) January 15, 2025
Curtice, a professor of politics practice at Strathclyde University, said the results indicate Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s popularity is not enough to offset voters’ “disappointment” with the performance of the UK Labour Government at Westminster.
“His once seemingly bright prospects of becoming Scotland’s next first minister have diminished markedly since July”, Curtice said.
“Nevertheless, the SNP are currently still heading for significant losses in next year’s Holyrood election, and could well find it difficult to form a stable administration.”
He added that while voters “have their doubts” about the SNP’s record in office since 2021 – particularly on health – they are “even more doubtful” about Labour’s performance at Westminster.
The poll also showed John Swinney is the most popular choice to be next first minister, with 25% of respondents saying they thought the SNP leader would be the best in the role, ahead of Anas Sarwar on 16%.
In total, 38% said they did not know who would make the best first minister.
Curtice also pointed to the two leaders’ differing fortunes among people who voted for their respective parties in 2021.
The poll suggested fewer than two in five of those who voted Labour in 2021 “positively approve” of Sarwar’s performance as party leader.
In contrast it indicates two-thirds of those who voted SNP in 2021 approve of Swinney’s performance – even though the party remains “well short” of the popularity it enjoyed in the last Holyrood election.
Dr Eilidh Whiteford, a True North senior adviser and former SNP MP, said the results showed Swinney had “arrested the decline” in his party’s fortunes since taking over the reins last year.
However, she cautioned that the party would be “well advised to avoid complacency”.
READ MORE: BBC’s ‘breathtaking arrogance’ towards Scottish talent must change, director says
“The support of just 33% of the electorate is hardly a ringing endorsement and it would be a big mistake to think that having steadied the ship they can continue with business as usual,” she said.
“Their revival of fortunes has more to do with the absence of an inspiring alternative than with renewed enthusiasm for their performance in government.
“Meanwhile, the saga of Operation Branchform drags on and may yet threaten to derail the SNP’s 2026 plans, with unpredictable consequences.”
Holyrood Sources podcast host and former Scottish Conservatives director of communications Andy Maciver said the poll confirmed a number of “emerging trends”.
“The first is that Labour is now realising, as the Tories have experienced for so many years, that when your Westminster party sneezes, you catch a cold,” he said.
READ MORE: Seamus Logan: Anas Sarwar’s ‘new direction’ appears to be missing actual policies
“The second is that, even without a leader in Scotland, Reform UK is attracting the votes of people, particularly on the Unionist right, who clearly feel the mainstream has failed them.
“And the third is that if Reform UK’s vote sticks then, for the first time, we may be in a situation where finding two parties who can together command a Holyrood majority could be a substantial hurdle.”
Fieldwork for the Survation poll was carried out via online interviews between January 7 and 13 2025, using a sample of 1,024 Scottish residents aged 16 and above.