However, while the Survation poll for the Holyrood Sources podcast and True North Advisors puts the SNP on 53 seats – ahead of second-placed Labour on 24 – the predicted 10 seats for the Greens means there would not be a nationalist majority in Holyrood for the first time in years.
This suggests a minority government will take the reigns in Scotland next year – while a clutch of Reform MPs will be making their voices heard for the first time at Holyrood as their support grows.
But how have the numbers changed over time – and was Labour’s support as steadfast as the tide which swept Sir Keir Starmer into No 10 Downing Street after commanding a lead in the polls for many months?
The Herald has crunched the numbers to look at how support has changed over time since Nicole Sturgeon’s shock resignation almost two years ago.
That moment was pivotal in Scottish politics as it represented the end of the Salmond and Sturgeon era and the beginnings of a new generation under Humza Yousaf. But in reality, it didn’t work out like that.
How support for the parties have changed in the Constituency vote
When Ms Sturgeon resigned the SNP remained by far the most popular party in Scotland, with a poll almost of the eve of her stepping down giving her party 43% of the constituency vote compared to next-in-line Scottish Labour’s 30%.
While this had fallen from a historic high of 50% during the pandemic, it was still a massive lead over the other parties and one which guaranteed the SNP would win the next election if such numbers held up.
When he assumed the reigns, Humza Yousaf was initially popular, with polls suggesting the SNP could expect, again, to win 43% of the vote.
But what followed next during the next 13 months of his time in the hotseat as a slow ebbing away of support.
While this was gradual at first, with significant outliers showing the SNP’s vote holding up – a poll in January 2024 still had the SNP of 39% of the constituency vote and 33% in the regional list – the overall picture as of declining enthusiasm for his party.
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While this could be interpreted as disgruntlement at his time in charge, he was also caught in the vice of growing support for Labour nationwide as Scots turned to a party they believed could oust the Tories from Westminster.
As the UK General Election loomed in July 2024, Labour had begun to regularly overtake the SNP In both regional and constituency voting, and when Mr Yousaf stepped down in May, support for the SNP had slumped.
In the constituency vote polls found it was supported by 35% in the constituency vote and as low as 27% in the regional list.
How support for the parties have changed in the Regional List vote
However, the tale since the general election has been one of reversal of fortunes for Scotland’s political parties.
Although they suffered a bruising election, the SNP has slowly regained its lead over Scottish Labour, if the polls are to be believed.
The return of the old guard in the form of First Minister John Swinney – and possibly the bringing-in-from-the-cold of his deputy Kate Forbes – appear to have steadied the ship with the SNP regaining its lead over Scottish Labour in August last year in both the constituency and regional votes.
Anas Sarwar has found himself staring down a slope when poll numbers are considered at Scottish Labour HQ, with support – influenced by the UK part’s performance as a whole – dropping as low as 19-22% in the constituency vote for Holyrood, according to latest polls.
And while there is still a great deal of time to go before the next Holyrood election, that’s a direction of travel which will have Scottish Labour clutching their hair.
Of note, though, is the fate of the smaller parties. The Greens and Lib Dems appear to be holding their votes, with a few fluctuations.
Alba, the attempted insurgent nationalists force, has failed to capture the hearts and minds of voters and looks unlikely to do that following the loss of driving force Alex Salmond.
It is Reform, a party which has no Scottish leader and did not feature in polling to any great degree when Nicola Sturgeon stood down.
SNP leader Humza Yousaf during a dance class at the Tempo Community Hub in Rutherglen during campaigning ahead of the Rutherglen and Hamilton West by-election. (Image: Robert Perry) Nigel Farage’s party is now a regular feature on voters minds, according to the polls, and could attract 13% of both the constituency and regional list vote in 2026, if polls are accurate.
Speaking about the latest survey, former Scottish Conservative director of communications, Andy Maciver, said the poll confirmed a number of “emerging trends”.
He said: “The first is that Labour is now realising, as the Tories have experienced for so many years, that when your Westminster party sneezes, you catch a cold.
“The second is that, even without a leader in Scotland, Reform UK is attracting the votes of people, particularly on the unionist right, who clearly feel the mainstream has failed them.
“The third is that if Reform UK’s vote sticks, then, for the first time, we may be in a situation where finding two parties who can together command a Holyrood majority could be a substantial hurdle.”
Professor Sir John Curtice of Strathclyde University said the results indicate Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s popularity is not enough to offset voters’ “disappointment” with the performance of the UK Labour Government at Westminster.
“His once seemingly bright prospects of becoming Scotland’s next first minister have diminished markedly since July,” Sir John said.
“Nevertheless, the SNP are currently still heading for significant losses in next year’s Holyrood election, and could well find it difficult to form a stable administration.”