The Scottish Tory leader is at risk of leading his party to a new low at the next Scottish Parliament elections, with Reform UK now on the cusp of becoming the third-largest group in Holyrood.
How does Russell Findlay solve a problem like Nigel Farage?
In his analysis of a Survation poll published on Wednesday, Professor Sir John Curtice put both the Scottish Tories and Reform on 15 seats. But with polling, it’s essential to look at the direction of travel, and currently, the upward momentum is with Reform.
In his New Year’s speech from the Forth Suite in Edinburgh’s Apex Hotel—chosen, one journalist suggested, because the Tories are heading for fourth—Findlay faced repeated questions on how he plans to stop his voters drifting to Reform.
“Any vote for any other party can only help the SNP. It’s critical that we get the messaging across,” he said.
The party points to Aberdeenshire North and Moray East, where the SNP beat the Tories by 942 votes while Reform’s candidate took 5,562 votes. But as a strategy, it doesn’t appear to be working.
Not only are voters drifting away, but so too are councillors.
On Thursday morning, Thomas Kerr, the leader of the Scottish Tory group on Glasgow City Council, defected to Reform.
He told my colleague Hannah Brown that his motivation was about “doing what was best for my constituents.”
However, his former colleagues argue that he was unlikely to replace Annie Wells or Sandesh Gulhane at the top of the regional list at the next election, leaving him with little chance of being elected.
By contrast, as a high-profile recruit, Kerr is almost certain to find himself high enough on Reform’s list to bag a Holyrood seat and a £74,506 salary.
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Should Findlay be worried about further defections?
Absolutely. One Tory source revealed that Reform has been contacting the party’s 200-odd councillors.
Many councillors, the source said, have likely heard more from Reform in the past few months than they’ve heard from Tory HQ in the past three years.
“They just feel unloved,” the source explained. “They’ve been knocking their pans in for so many elections, and the party hierarchy doesn’t even give them a thank you.”
Adam Morris, a former head of media for the Scottish Tories, believes the party simply needs to “keep the head and keep the faith.”
“Yes, polling suggests if an election were tomorrow, Reform would do quite well. But it’s 16 months away, and Reform won’t hold it together for that time,” he argued.
“They’re already in chaos down south, and that’s where they actually make an effort. There’s no structure in Scotland—no leader, no leafleters, no door-knockers, no activists aside from a few noisy people on social media. They’ve tried and failed to persuade MSPs to join them, so they’ve reverted to little-known local councillors.”
Morris’s argument, which aligns with the thinking of Findlay’s key advisers, is that people only pay attention to elections in the final weeks of the campaign. By that time, they believe, Reform will have self-destructed.
The challenge for Findlay is to prevent the Tories from imploding before May 7, 2026.
Very soon, the party will begin the process of selecting its Holyrood candidates, which is likely to get messy.
While not all 31 MSPs will want to stand again, far more than the 15 expected to be re-elected will likely put their names forward. Could an MSP be tempted to defect in the meantime?