On Tuesday morning, the SFC – a non-ministerial government body tasked with providing independent economic forecasts – published a report which said ending the two-child benefit cap in Scotland would cost £155 million and help 43,000 kids in its first year, which was projected to be 2026.
These costs will rise to £198m by 2030, the SFC projected, when 50,000 children will be helped by the mitigation of the UK Government cap.
As it stands, the Labour Government have continued the Tory-era policy of preventing families from claiming benefits for third or subsequent children – unless they can meet certain conditions such as proving that the child is a product of rape.
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In a late addition to their 2025/26 Budget proposals, the SNP said they would allocate £3m “to develop the systems needed to deliver mitigation of the two-child cap, which could lift an estimated 15,000 children out of poverty in Scotland”.
Social Justice Secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville said this money would allow “the detailed work of building the system and developing legislation” to begin – however data from the UK Government would be needed before the mitigation could be fully rolled out.
“Officials from both governments have met to discuss and I am seeking a ministerial meeting so this vital policy can be progressed as a priority,” she added.
“We are ready to work as hard as possible in 2025 so that we can start paying families as early as possible in 2026, but we need the UK Government to do the same.”
Collette Stevenson, the SNP MSP for East Kilbride, welcomed the move.
“Unlike the UK Labour government, the SNP remains opposed to the abhorrent two-child cap and is committed to ending it by 2026,” she said.
“This means payments will go to 50,000 children by 2030, according to the Scottish Fiscal Commission. This will be a lifeline for those families and takes us a step closer to achieving our goal of eradicating child poverty.
“Even though they have failed to scrap the cap after U-turning on their own opposition to it, I sincerely hope the Labour UK Government will work with the Scottish Government to ensure the damage being done can end as soon as possible.”
When it was introduced, top Labour figures were vocally opposed to the two-child cap, including the now-Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner calling it “obscene”.
Prime Minister Keir Starmer has defended keeping the Tories’ two-child cap in placeScottish Greens spokesperson for social justice Maggie Chapman said: “The two-child cap is one of the most cruel and callous examples of Westminster austerity, brought in by the former Tory government and being entrenched by Labour. Every MP who has backed it should hang their heads in shame.
“Poverty is a scourge on all of us, with long-lasting effects on health, services and wellbeing; there are intergenerational legacies of child poverty in many homes. We should be prioritising the ways in which we can end that, and removing the cap on child benefit is a crucial starting point.
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“The Scottish Government should never have been placed in this position to begin with, but we must do what we can to help lift children and their families out of poverty here in Scotland.”
A UK Government spokesperson said: “No child should be in poverty – that’s why our ministerial taskforce is exploring all levers available across government to give children across the United Kingdom the best start in life.
“As part of our Plan for Change which will build family security, we’re increasing the National Living Wage, capping how much Universal Credit can be taken for debt repayments and supporting people into work through our Get Britain Working Plan to put more money in people’s pockets and help families build a brighter future.”