After Sarwar revealed his party would be abstaining in the vote on the Scottish Budget last week, his party dumped the “change” slogan they shared with UK Labour, replacing it with the phrase “new direction” following a difficult first six months of a Labour Government at Westminster.
It is a sign Sarwar is looking to distance himself from unpopular decisions made by UK Labour, with some moves such as the cut to the Winter Fuel Payment and keeping the two-child benefit cap causing a major conundrum for him.
On BBC Radio Scotland a few days ago. he sought to try and laugh off the difficulties the first few months of a Labour Government had presented him with, but he was rapidly and awkwardly shut down by the presenter, showing that, at times, he has struggled to jostle for position between not ruffling UK Labour feathers while attempting to sail his own course.
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But challenging as it may be, Dr Paul Anderson, a politics expert from Scotland based at Liverpool John Moores University, said while the path to success for Scottish Labour does depend on the performance of UK Labour, they must set out a clear narrative distinctive from their UK partners.
He told the Sunday National: “Sarwar’s road to becoming first minister depends entirely on the performance of UK Labour.
“Starmer has taken unpopular decisions and has accepted these are unpopular and said ‘it’s fine because in five years, you will look back and say those decisions were taken at the right time’. That’s a problem for Scottish Labour because they don’t have five years; the election is next year.
“People in Scotland are looking at what UK Labour are doing and are not happy.
“What Scottish Labour need to do is they need to set out a clear and positive narrative for Scottish Labour. People in Scotland didn’t like the Tories and they wanted them out, but that is not the same with the SNP. People might not like everything but support for the SNP is not crumbling like it did for the Conservatives, so you need to have a different strategy.”
(Image: Andrew Milligan) Many of the difficulties for Sarwar have been around welfare issues. He had stressed Scottish Labour would push to end the two-child benefit cap, only for Scottish Labour MPs to vote to keep it in place.
There was a similar and even more confusing saga with the Winter Fuel Payment which Scottish Labour MPs voted to cut before Sarwar said weeks later that if he got into power in Scotland, he would bring it back as a devolved benefit.
With the SNP Scottish Government pledging to bring back a form of Winter Fuel Payment and work to remove the two-child cap by next year, there is a sense Sarwar was backed into a corner with no choice but to abstain in the Budget process.
His only room for manoeuvre was to push for the two-child cap to be removed faster, but given Scottish Labour MPs voted to keep it in place, he has once again left himself open to attack from opponents.
Asked if Scottish Labour need to focus on creating a clearer line between themselves and UK Labour, Professor Robert Johns, who was a founding investigator on the Scottish Election Study series, said: “Absolutely. To me, it’s so obvious this would be the right strategy.”
He added that as part of this, Sarwar needs to lay out who Scottish Labour MPs answer to.
“Labour needs to decide whether they are in any sense ‘his MPs’ [Sarwar’s],” Johns told the Sunday National.
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“On a strict constitutional reading, they’re not his MPs at all.
“As devolution has embedded and the Scottish Labour leader has become a more important person in Scottish politics, it makes sense to think of Scottish MPs at Westminster as being in some sense influenced by Anas Sarwar.
“But from the point of view of 2026 and Scottish elections in general, it’s much more in Scottish Labour’s interests to emphasise a separation and it doesn’t make strategic sense for him to say what his MPs will do because he’s failing to tell them what to do, and what he should want strategically is to be able to say these are separate parties.
“It is in Anas Sarwar’s interest at every turn to say Scottish Labour is different from UK Labour.
“If I were him, I would be saying ‘Keir Starmer will guide Labour MPs in Scotland about how they will vote, but you can rest assured Labour MSPs will not be voting like that’.”
(Image: Peter Byrne) Anderson added: “The big problem Sarwar has is to whom do Scottish Labour MPs take their instructions from – the leader of Scottish Labour or the Prime Minister. That always seems to have been an issue for Scottish Labour, being caught between two masters.”
Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner suggested last week the UK Government will not dictate what position Scottish Labour should take on key welfare policies.
She added that while Scottish Labour may want to do things differently, “our values and aims remain the same”.
Last month, The National commissioned a poll which showed the vast majority of Scots do not believe Sarwar stands up to Keir Starmer, and Dr Anderson said it has become difficult for Sarwar to diverge from UK Labour given he has been close to Starmer and the ‘change’ approach.
But he now thinks compared to last July, Labour are going to find it more difficult to succeed at Holyrood if they do not set out their own stall.
“I don’t think it’s a bad thing to diverge, it’s how that’s communicated and handled,” he said.
“Where it becomes interesting is that Sarwar has linked himself so much with Starmer and ‘change’ and so when you start to diverge a bit, it puts the spotlight on that relationship between UK and Scottish Labour and then these accusations of being a branch office come back into play.”
He added: “What they need to make clear is that it’s Scotland first, party second. At the moment voters are looking at UK Labour and setting out their intentions based on that.
“In July 2024, I wouldn’t have ruled out Scottish Labour winning the 2026 election. I think that is now more difficult.”